MADRID — For years, Spain’s authorities dismissed the separatist motion within the Catalonia area as little greater than a “soufflé” — straightforward to inflate however then collapsing in on itself.
But the motion exhibits no indicators of imploding anytime quickly, even amid a pandemic that has bridged divides elsewhere in Europe.
In a regional election on Sunday, events searching for to create a breakaway state for Catalonia — the a part of northeastern Spain that features Barcelona — elevated their majority within the regional Parliament. They started negotiations this week to kind a coalition.
Election turnout was sharply lowered by the coronavirus, however the last tally confirmed pro-independence events receiving a majority of votes — a prize that had lengthy eluded them.
“From a pro-independence perspective, that is one thing to have a good time,” stated Àdria Alsina, a Barcelona political analyst who helps breaking away from Spain. “It’s one much less argument for many who are in opposition to independence and say we by no means received a majority.”
Catalan independence, as soon as a pipe dream of a small group of individuals, has arguably been Spain’s most polarizing problem for nearly a decade. The standoff reached a boiling level in 2017 when the area’s separatist authorities organized an independence referendum. It went forward even after Spain’s courts declared it unlawful and the police cracked down on voters.
The referendum was adopted by a declaration of independence, which prompted Spain’s central authorities to oust the Catalan authorities and cost its members with crimes together with sedition. A few of them fled Spain to keep away from prosecution, whereas others ended up in jail.
Tensions heightened in Catalonia this week after the police arrested a well-liked rapper, Pablo Hásel, within the city of Lleida. Mr. Hásel, 32, whose actual identify is actual identify is Pablo Rivadulla Duró, faces 9 months in jail on expenses that his rap lyrics glorified terrorism and denigrated the monarchy. Protests in help of him started on Tuesday in Barcelona, Madrid and different cities, and have turned violent.
Earlier than Sunday’s vote, the central authorities led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez dispatched its well being minister, Salvador Illa, to run within the regional election on a platform that centered on remaining in Spain. He resigned his put up within the nationwide authorities and tried to capitalize on the prominence he had gained not too long ago because the face of the federal government’s response to the pandemic’s well being disaster.
The technique reaped some dividends: Whereas Mr. Illa didn’t obtain sufficient votes to kind a governing coalition, his celebration garnered extra help than every other.
The outcomes additionally pointed to moderation throughout the pro-independence camp. Among the many pro-independence events, voters favored Esquerra Republicana, a reasonable left-wing celebration that has propped up Mr. Sánchez’s authorities in Madrid.
Talking to reporters after Sunday’s vote, Arancha González Laya, Spain’s international minister, stated the scenario in Catalonia appeared extra “comfy” from Madrid’s perspective, with left-wing and extra reasonable events outflanking rivals on each side of the separatism divide.
“There was an advance of those that are extra inclined to a dialogue with the federal government,” Ms. González Laya stated.
After the vote, Spain’s authorities stated an independence referendum was not on the playing cards, at the same time as separatist politicians in Catalonia insisted that the demand must be on the coronary heart of any future negotiation with Madrid.
However one problem that seems extra open for dialogue is whether or not Madrid may pardon 9 politicians and activists who have been jailed for orchestrating the secession try in 2017.
Carles Puigdemont, the president of Catalonia’s regional authorities on the time, fled the nation to evade prosecution. He now lives in Brussels and has since been elected as a member of the European Parliament. He’s combating an try and carry his immunity as a member of that physique, which may enable Spain’s judiciary to make a recent try and extradite him.
Jordi Cuixart, one of many politicians searching for a pardon after being sentenced to 9 years in jail, stated that “Spain has a democracy, but it surely nonetheless maintains an anti-democratic angle.” He stated he not solely wished to be launched from jail, however was asking the federal government to absolve him and the others of any wrongdoing.
If there may be any decision to the independence query, it should take time, stated Sandra León, a political scientist on the Carlos III College in Madrid.
Whereas the reasonable independence wing is prone to be within the driver’s seat, Mr. Puigdemont’s extra hard-line celebration, Collectively for Catalonia, is prone to be a part of the regional authorities as properly.
Vox, a Spanish far-right celebration that has made its anti-independence stance a central problem, may also be part of Catalonia’s Parliament for the primary time, probably fueling additional polarization, Ms. León stated.
Catalan separatists are carefully following actions elsewhere in Europe, notably in Scotland, the place the drive for independence has been reignited by Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. The Scots voted in opposition to independence in a 2014 referendum that was approved by London, however then additionally voted in opposition to Britain’s exit from the European Union.
“The independence motion is right here to remain,” stated Josep Ramoneda, a Catalan columnist and thinker. “Ultimately, someone in Madrid must acknowledge that.”